So Duke lost to Michigan State on Sunday night. Yeah, Duke - the team with the winningest head coach in NCAA history and quite possibly the best draft prospect since Kevin Durant, plus two other borderline top 5 picks.
As talented as this team was, they didn't have what it took to win it all. I think I know why. Allow me to explain.
In 2006, the NBA and its Players Association agreed to a new rule that kept players from being drafted directly out of high school. From that point on, to be eligible for the NBA Draft you needed to be at least 19 years old and out of high school for a year. They decided to implement this rule to hopefully improve the quality of play throughout the league, as players would have one more year of experience and maturity under their belts. By the league's logic, this uptick in quality would attract more people and increase revenue. The players understood that this would benefit them monetarily as well, even though it kept players from entering the league a year sooner.
It was a controversial decision that resulted in most players just going to college for just a year before declaring for the draft. With that, it was ultimately coined as the "one-and-done rule".
This rule has had a profound impact on not just the professional game, though. College basketball has increasingly suffered since the rule change. The rate of freshmen leaving school after a year to pursue the NBA Draft has been trending up. An NCAA article cited that 18 college freshmen were drafted in 2018 - almost 1 in every 3 players taken and tied with 2017 for the most freshmen drafted. A whopping eight of the first ten picks in the 2018 draft were freshmen. A freshman has also been the top pick in the draft every single year since 2010.
At the same time, less elite draft-worthy athletes are remaining with their teams through graduation. Just 11 seniors were drafted in 2018, down from 19 in 2017. Just 1.2% of men's basketball student-athletes are drafted into the NBA, and players are declaring for the draft quicker than ever.
The latest Commission on College Basketball report stated "one-and-done has played a significant role in corrupting and destabilizing college basketball, restricting the freedom of choice of players, and undermining the relationship of college basketball to the mission of higher education. Elite high school players with NBA prospects and no interest in a college degree should not be ‘forced’ to attend college, often for less than a year.”
Since 2006, there have only been TWO teams that have won the NCAA tournament that have been led by one or more one-and-done players: Kentucky in 2012 and Duke in 2015. This year's Final Four teams feature 0 one-and-done freshmen.
So, what's the point? What is the objective the NCAA is aiming to achieve under this current scenario?
If the objective is to win, the top teams in the country are constantly recruiting NBA-ready star freshmen talent who will inevitably fall short of the title before leaving the team for the pros.
If the objective is to advance your kids, well, the kids are not listening. There have been over 130 one-and-done athletes since 2006. Of them, 16 have made at least one All-Star team. The list features Durant, Anthony Davis, Kyrie Irving, Joel Embiid, Jimmy Butler, and more of the NBA's best players.
So am I surprised Duke lost? No, not at all.
Does it mean I think Zion Williamson will be a bust? No, not at all. He's unbelievable, but he was tired, and Michigan State had a more experienced team.
I'm not one with the one-and-done's, but it does appear that there may be hope on the horizon for a change in the system. There have been rumors about the NBA pulling back its age requirement by the 2022 draft so players can enter at 18 years old once again. Sure, they won't get the opportunity to experience college by making the immediate jump, but how much are these one-and-done guys experiencing as is? What could student-athletes possibly gain from one year of school?
How do you feel about this issue? Should elite basketball players be allowed to go straight to the pros from high school?
Would love to hear your feedback below.
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I’m fine either way if a high school player is good enough and wants to go directly to the NBA he should have the option and the NBA also has the option to not draft the player. If you leave it as is the colleges have the right to not bring on a player who has no intention to play more then 1 year but Greed gets in the way of all of this the NBA can’t help themselves and would draft an 8th grader if they thought it would benefit them and Colleges will continue to recruit anyone if they think it helps the program and just stop it with the educational side as these players have probably never gone to a class! It’s all money driven it’s just the way it is if the player fails no one cares there are more of them coming behind him!
I think the NCAA (and I love college basketball) is stuck with an archaic model that no longer makes sense. They make billions off of student athletes, yet hold “eligibility” over their heads the entire time they are in college.
Further, this current model (tuition, board, stipend) might be fine for an athlete from an affluent situation, but it makes no sense for someone who comes from a lower socioeconomic situation. They possess a highly coveted skill but must wait to make $$$ from it (and at the same time risk an injury that could wipe that potential away) just to adhere to arbitrary NCAA regulations. You’re asking for shady practices to occur (paying prospects a la LSU, Zona, etc.). The goal of the NCAA should be to develop a system that allows players compensation and freedom to seek “above the table” endorsements as they continue to represent college athletics.
Meanwhile the NBA introduces a rule to regulate the age that a potential draft prospect can enter. As a business, I don’t see the point of this. I’ve never understood the idea of limiting your potential employees based on a year. Sure, some kids benefit and mature in a year, but I don’t believe that NBA teams are going to risk the on-court product drafting numerous high school kids to fill their rosters. They will take flyers based on potential, but the growth of the G-league and 2-way contracts allows for the team to develop their players IN THEIR OWN SYSTEM.
Long rant over, but changes need to occur and the NCAA needs to adapt to changing time (and Adam Silver needs to continue to push to amend the NBA’s 19 year age limit).
Lastly – #GOBLUE
smaney315
Should just let em play out of HS.
Very good article. I like it. @momo1778.
Always excellent info!